In this month's qualitative corner, Jen Cassels continues to explore the use of timelines in market research, reviewing different applications of this technique.
Jennifer Squire 
18 Nov, 2008
Understanding the past, present and future: The use of time line in qualitative market research Part 2
The idea of a time line is not a new one, in fact it was a concept first raised by Aristole. Time line therapy on the other hand is a more modern phenomenon and an off shoot of NLP. Within market research we have developed techniques based on the timeline concept. Such techniques take on different guises and can be utilised in a number of different ways.
In October’s qual corner we reviewed one variant of the timeline technique
which helps gain greater depth of understanding of patient behaviours and uncover
the roots of these behaviours. This month we will focus on how different variations
of the timeline technique can be utilised with healthcare professionals to
gain greater insights into future markets and the potential impact of new product
launches.
Understanding the potential impact of new market entrants within a therapy
area is common within market research. In order to gain more realistic insights
it is important to assess this impact against the backdrop of future market
situation rather than the present one. It is challenging for anyone to project
into the future and determine how things will be. Can you imagine 10 years
into the future and what could be happening in the world around you? I don’t
think anyone would have imagined air travel ten years before it was invented
or that mobile phones and e-mail would be the future of communication.
One variation of the time line technique and a relatively simple one at that
can be utilised to help move market research respondents into more future orientated
thinking. In this instance we firstly determine the current unmet market needs
and underlying market issues that exist. Respondents are then shown a time
line of potential new products in chronological order and asked to comment
on how these could change the shape of the market, what needs each may or may
not meet and any issues each may face pre, during or post launch. 
By mapping
out both the positive elements surrounding each product, as well as potential
challenges it may face we can build a clearer picture of a future marketplace.
It is worth remembering the importance of looking at the big picture rather
than seeing each product launch or event in isolation.
One final variation of time line is a slightly more complicated version of the previously discussed technique. Understanding the potential impact of the introduction of a novel drug onto the market can be complicated. There is less of a reference point compared to launching a new variation of a commonly used drug. For example a vaccine against HIV has been long discussed and no-one is sure what would need to happen in order for it to be accepted and used.
In this variation of the timeline exercise, we take the respondent out of
their current mindset projecting them into the future where a novel drug already
exists and is available. We take them into the future by asking them to physically
step onto an imaginary timeline and move 10 years (the actual time is fairly
irrelevant) from now. By physically removing them from their current thinking
we allow their mind to be open to a different future. By asking the respondent
to imagine that this new drug is now available on the market and has been for
a few years, how they are using it, how they feel about it, what is happening
in terms of education, support, guideline etc we can start to build a picture
of the future.
By stepping the respondent back to different time points on this line we can begin to understand what has to happen in order for the new drug to be accepted and be successful. Working backwards allows us to identify what changes in behaviours or beliefs needed to occur for a drug to be accepted at each point in the time line, what challenges or barriers were faced in getting to this point and how these could be overcome.
The timeline technique is a valuable market research tool. It can provide us with new perspectives on peoples’ behaviour, as well as gain insights into a future world. The learnings gained can help shape communication strategy, provide insights into product development needs or help create more effective pre and post launch strategies.
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